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Crazy speculation set down for the record

Just writing it here for the record in case it happens.

I'm not one for believing in complicated conspiracy theories when simple greed, corruption, idiocy, and incompetence will explain everything. But for a long time it's bugged me how many Ruepublicans sided with Trump even after they denounced him as incompetent, or he verbally abused them. I mean, see above-- they want to be on the winning side, the slimebuckets. But last week it occurred to me that as Speaker of the House, the notoriously spineless greed-driven coward Paul Ryan is third in the line of presidential succession. And I found myself wondering if he threw in his lot with obviously unqualified and explosively controversial Trump, who he initially opposed and who in fact insulted him, in order to play a long con and at some point take advantage of that fact.

Trump's approval rating just hit fifty percent, a low that it took George W. Bush three years to finally reach, in the first goddamn week of his presidency. His indiscriminate use of poorly-planned and legally-unvetted executive orders, also in the first goddamn week of his presidency, are creating more and more of a case that we are in a Constitutional crisis. Not to mention Trump's other violations, such as his refusal to divest his business interests placing him in breach of the Emoluments Clause. People are already calling for his impeachment, and I think there is at least a fair chance, even if I'm not being too optimistic, that it could happen. It could be due to his recent unconstitutional policies-- like, there's been tape surfacing of Rudy Giuliani saying Trump literally asked him how we could find a legal way to institute a Muslim ban. And if it is, there's also a chance Pence would be found complicit in them as well, as it seems clear he's given his support and approval of them. So maybe Pence could be taken out too. Which would clear the way for... Paul Ryan. Who is the leader of the body who'd be bringing the Articles of Impeachment.

Yeah, that's ridiculous and unlikely. The Republicans as a self-interested, loot-and-run party probably stand to gain much more as an entity without their president being impeached. Even if Ryan wanted it, as a group I doubt they'd all go for it. But... Trump is nuts. And Ryan is probably more in line with their goals at large. We learned during the primaries that most of the establishment hates him, and even though they need him for their goals now, I seriously doubt that they have learned to like him any better. So... maybe?

If so, you heard it here first.


Posts from This Journal by “musing” Tag


( 2 comments — Leave a comment )
Jan. 30th, 2017 06:18 pm (UTC)
I think it's unlikely.

Explanation: let's say the GOP impeaches Trump. Pence becomes president. The GOP likes Pence - he's a generic conservative Republican, with no significant achievements or heresies. (Matt Yglesias thought he was a serious presidential dark horse option back in 2014.) Everyone would be happier if Pence were elected president.

But this isn't an option. Impeachment is an admission that Trump is wrong. It's an invitation for every elected Republican to exercise personal judgment rather than follow the party line. It empowers the opposition, which is still the Democrats. It sends swing voters a signal, "there's been a mistake, vote for the Democrats next time." And it tells working-class racists that Trump really is out of line, whereas today they're happy with the Muslim ban and think the only opponents are darkies and arugula eaters rather than Real Americans.
Feb. 5th, 2017 06:35 pm (UTC)
Actually, I think this one's entirely plausible.

I mean, seriously -- a large fraction of the Republicans in Congress *despise* Trump. They're playing along because he's giving them goodies they want (especially the Supreme Court appointment), but I'd be surprised if half of them actually *want* him there.

I figure they're biding their time, letting his popularity slip low enough, and letting him make enough idiot mistakes, to provide them with excuses and political cover to impeach him.

And really, impeachment is *not* that difficult, given that nearly all Democrats would vote in favor. It would require a non-trivial but not huge fraction of Republicans to impeach him, which they would do on the basis of his *many* "violations of conservative principles". At that point, the narrative is going to get weird, but expect to hear the word "betrayal" a lot.

As for Ryan himself -- I don't know if he's actually angling for the big seat himself at the moment. But I'm near-certain that he'd rather be working with Pence than Trump. (And I'm clear that, while Pence is a horrible monster, he's not nearly as likely to literally destroy the country -- possibly the world -- as Trump.)

All of which is why it's so important to keep the pressure up. The more visibly unpopular Trump is, the more palatable dumping him becomes. I don't think it's a certainty to happen -- I think there's a high chance that the Republicans will dither when presented with a good excuse -- but it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

And I should note: this will all become a *major* topic in 2018. We need to start making clear that Republicans in purple states are going to start losing their seats over Trump. That will probably sharpen minds a lot...
( 2 comments — Leave a comment )

About Me

My name is Phoebe. I'm Boston area theater professional and English professor focused in writing, acting, directing, and modeling. I'm known for having lots of interests, lots of opinions about those interests, and a very high estimation of the value thereof. This blog is for talking about whatever's on my mind, from my daily life to my activities to musing on any number of abstract topics. Thanks for taking the time to read.

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